Investigating the Relationship Between Macroeconomic Indicators of Forest Dwellers and Changes in Forest Extent (Case Study of Kuhdasht, Iran)

Background and Objectives: The Zagros forests, as one of the most important forest ecosystems in Iran, have faced serious challenges due to the deep dependence of rural populations on natural resources. Degradation of these forests not only leads to a decline in the quality and quantity of natural resources but also has significant negative impacts on the livelihoods and lives of local communities. Demographic changes have resulted in alterations in economic activities and are considered a starting point for changes in land use. This study aims to investigate the relationship between economic variables (per capita expenditure, poverty line, migration, and population) and changes in forest area in the Olad Qabad district of Kuhdasht County, Lorestan Province.
Materials and Methods: This study was conducted to investigate the relationship between economic variables (per capita expenditure, poverty line, migration, and population) and changes in the forest area in the Olad Qabad district of Kuhdasht County, Lorestan Province. To this end, the poverty line was initially calculated based on 50% of the average per capita expenditure, and data on population and migration were collected from census data and statistical yearbooks from 1993 to 2013. Changes in forest area, covering 13,250 hectares, were analyzed for three time periods (1993, 2003, and 2013) and land uses (agriculture, forest, pasture, bare land, and built-up areas) using Landsat satellite imagery from the TM, ETM+, and OLI sensors. The forest area maps for these time periods were generated using supervised classification with the maximum likelihood algorithm, and the Landuse Multiplication Matrix (LMM) model was employed to identify the conversion of various land uses to one another.
Results: The results indicated that the extent of forest degradation amounted to 528 hectares, and poverty increased over the 20-year period. The rate of forest degradation in the first period was 22.8 hectares per year, while the annual change in the second period was 30 hectares per year, indicating more severe degradation during the period of 2003-2013. In the first period, the study area experienced net in-migration, and the increase in population led to over-exploitation of forests and the conversion of forest land to bare soil and agricultural land. Consequently, the effects of degradation became more pronounced in the second period, with the degradation of natural resources leading to material poverty among local populations and ultimately migration from the region during 2003-2013. Correlation analysis among the variables revealed that poverty and population were more influential on forest degradation than per capita expenditure and migration.
Conclusion: Presentation of results from implemented programs for the conservation and utilization of natural resources, as well as documentation of changes in vegetation cover, is currently considered an objective and effective tool for natural resources planners both now and in the future. In this study, for the first time in one of the forested areas of western Iran, the economic-social indicators and changes in forest cover were examined. Utilizing this information allows for precise assessment of the impacts of development and land use changes, which can contribute to optimal decision-making and effective planning to prevent adverse environmental effects.