Background and Objectives:

Iran has significant potential for health and therapeutic tourism because of its rich history, climatic diversity, and numerous mineral hot springs. These springs have traditionally been used for treating illnesses such as rheumatism, skin diseases, and digestive disorders, and modern scientific studies have confirmed many of their therapeutic properties. Despite these advantages, many hot springs in Iran are still used in traditional and unhygienic ways. With proper infrastructure and health facilities, they could become major health tourism destinations. One such location is the Golgir region in Khuzestan Province, which also contains historical and natural attractions that can further support tourism development. The aim of this research was to evaluate the therapeutic tourism potential of the Golgir hot spring from a natural and developmental perspective. The novelty of this study lies in its integrated approach, which for the first time combines hydrogeochemical data analysis, strategic SWOT analysis with expert weighting and quantitative scoring (IFE and EFE), and economic-financial evaluation including Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value (NPV), and payback period calculations for the Golgir hot spring area.

Materials and methods: This study evaluated the potential of the Golgir spring area for tourism and medical service development using climatic, geological, hydrological, and field data. Climatic information, including monthly average temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity, was obtained from the Masjed Soleiman synoptic station to assess environmental conditions. Geological maps (1:100,000 scale) were applied to investigate geological and stratigraphic conditions. The discharge of the Golgir spring was measured in four seasons of 2015 and 2016 (three measurements per season with 10-day intervals, totaling 24 measurements). In addition, 12 spring water samples were collected and analyzed through chemical and hydrochemical tests (using Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy - AAS and spectrophotometer according to APHA standards) to determine the composition of major ions and evaluate water quality. Field observations and surveys also supported the research process. Based on collected data, literature reviews, and consultations with 15 experts (including 5 university faculty members, 5 cultural heritage specialists, and 5 local managers), a SWOT analysis was conducted to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats related to tourism development in the area. The factors were weighted according to their importance, and the final scores of internal factors (IFE) and external factors (EFE) were used to determine the suitability of the spring area for establishing tourism and medical facilities.



Results: Hydrogeochemical analyses revealed that the Golgir hot spring is characterized by a sodium-chloride-sulfate (Na–Cl–SO₄) water type. Owing to its favorable ionic composition, the spring water is well suited for balneotherapy and health tourism applications. The average spring discharge was measured at 377.5 L/s, indicating sufficient water availability to support the development of tourism and therapeutic facilities. The SWOT analysis identified 24 strengths, 17 weaknesses, 17 opportunities, and 12 threats. The calculated Internal Factor Evaluation (IFE) score was 3.12 and External Factor Evaluation (EFE) score was 2.87, indicating the predominance of strengths over weaknesses and opportunities over threats, placing the region in the aggressive (SO) strategy zone. The principal strengths included the presence of the mineral hot spring, attractive natural landscapes, diverse historical and cultural attractions, and the strategic geographical location of the study area. In contrast, inadequate tourism and transportation infrastructure, limited promotional activities, insufficient investment, and the lack of integrated planning were recognized as the major weaknesses and threats. The economic evaluation further confirmed the feasibility of the proposed project, with an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 48%, a payback period of 4.3 years, and a Net Present Value (NPV) of 345,000 million Rials (at a 23% discount rate), demonstrating the project's economic attractiveness. Overall, the findings indicate that by addressing infrastructural and managerial constraints and effectively utilizing the region's natural and therapeutic resources, the Golgir hot spring has the potential to become one of the leading health tourism destinations in southwestern Iran.

Conclusions: Overall, the findings demonstrate that the development of a tourism and therapeutic complex in the Golgir area can significantly promote health tourism, generate employment opportunities, stimulate regional economic growth, and strengthen the position of Khuzestan Province in the health tourism sector. Based on the developed strategic matrix, aggressive strategies (SO) including investment in tourism infrastructure and promotion of regional attractions, competitive strategies (WO) including human resource training and public participation, defensive strategies (ST) including natural resource protection and environmental management, and contraction strategies (WT) including comprehensive planning to reduce threats, are proposed as implementation priorities. Achieving these outcomes, however, requires improvements in tourism infrastructure, increased public and private investment, active participation of the private sector, capacity building within local communities, and the sustainable management of natural resources. Therefore, the formulation and implementation of a comprehensive and sustainable development strategy is essential for the effective utilization of the Golgir mineral hot spring and the long-term socio-economic development of the region.