نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 literacy movement street, third culture alley
2 استادیار اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی و منابعطبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران
3 ستادیار دانشکده کشاورزی و منابعطبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Background and Objectives: This study aims to determine the forest distribution and area over the period 1993-2013 and model the possibility of changes in forest. For this purpose, the relationship of forest changes with physiographic factors and many human factors using logistic regression were studied.
Methods: After geo-correction of the images and their classification using maximum likelihood algorithm, forest land use map related to 1993-2013 period was prepared. The map of forest changes was derived from intersection of the two maps.
Findings: To investigate the spatial relationship between forest changes and physiographic and human factors, logistic regression was used with slope and elevation as topographic variables, and distance from roads and village as human variables. Forest area has been 13250 ha which has decreased about 528 ha (equal to 9.8%) during the 20 years. Relative agreement between obtained model and the map of forest changes map by Pseudo R2 and ROC coefficient was equal to 0.22 and 0.73, respectively.
Conclusion: Distance from village, elevation and slope variables had negative relationship with the rate of destruction. However, the rate of destruction increases with increasing distance from the roads. Since the population influences the process of deforestation, it is recommended to use this factor in destruction evaluation and modeling.
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